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Sep 22

Weekly Report: September 25, 2022


  • The Fed raised rates by 0.75% to an upper bound of 3.25% this week. The market expects further raises to 4.25% or 4.50% by the end of this year, and the market reacted accordingly. The U.S. dollar continues its inexorable run upwards against every other major world currency. The yen hit a 24 year low (146 JPY to the dollar), prompting the Bank of Japan to intervene and prop up their currency for the first time in as many years. The pound hit a 37 year low (falling to $1.084), and the euro a 20 year low (falling to $0.9689). The Australian dollar “only” hit a 2 year low (at $0.651), having sharply plummeted to under $0.57 during the early days of the pandemic. Interest rate differentials will encourage further USD inflows, which will continue until U.S. interest rates pull back, and a recession bites. (If the recession is global, which I think is likely, the USD may continue rallying for a while due to flight from risk.) If the past is any indication, the time the Fed starts cutting rates will roughly coincide with the start of a crash and subsequent recession. Susanne and I have been slowly buying Australian dollars and Danish kroner (which is pegged to the euro) on the bet that these historically low rates won’t be a high watermark, and things will recover in a few years.
  • A second company fell prey to a high profile hack in as many weeks: Take Two (which actually got hacked twice). While details about the Take Two hacks are sparse, I’d wager that, like the Uber incident, it all started with a social engineering attack.
  • Susanne is already regretting telling me about this, but KOKS, a Michelin-starred restaurant in the picturesque Faroe Islands, is temporarily moving to the small village of Ilimanaq, Greenland next summer. If you want to dine inside the Arctic Circle, you have to buy a package deal, which comes with a boat transfer through a fjord from nearby Ilulissat, and a hotel night (KOKS will also feed you breakfast). It sounds incredible, but the logistics of pulling off a trip there are imposing.


Charts, Images & Videos

Data: YCharts, Chart: Simran Parwani/Axios

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