Archived Posts for November 2006

Survivor 13 – Another prediction

Spoilers ahead.

I thought last week’s episode of Survivor was a stunner. This week’s one was absolutely pivotal. Jonathan has pulled a Judas and successfully backstabbed everyone. He didn’t have a choice. Regardless of his so-called lack of integrity (the first mutiny was a stupid, rash impulsive decision), his latest flip was borne out of necessity. As the favoured-to-win Yul said, Jonathan’s nothing if not rational. It’s amazing how quickly the “White alliance” has crumbled in the course of one episode and now they find themselves staring down the barrel. Nate almost deserved to get voted out – he just didn’t put enough thought into things.

Here’s how it’s going to go down now, barring any twists that Jeff throws in. In the next three episodes, Candice, Parvati and Adam are out. It doesn’t matter what order, or if they win individual immunity, whatever. They’re gone. I can’t think of a reason why they’d not be picked off. Then it’s down to five. More interesting to watch over the next few episodes will be how the alliance of five manoeuvres. Ozzy’s the danger man – he’ll be winning a lot of individual immunities. So I forecast that Yul and Becky will have to rope someone in. There’s no way Jonathan will win – he’s too disliked and in the event of the final jury vote, he’ll go down in flames. Which makes him the perfect person to bring along to the end. Yul and Becky to rope in Jonathan against Sundra and Ozzy. Ozzy will surely pick up on this at some point, but I think the most he can do is keep winning immunity. If he fails to win immunity after Candice, Parvati or Adam are gone (or if Yul is thinking ahead, maybe after only two of those three are voted off – to surprise Ozzy – but this would require some major scheming), chances are Yul will move to have him voted off.

Let’s say we get down to Yul, Becky, Jonathan and Ozzy. Ozzy wins immunity. Things get interesting. Jonathan will be the best to take to the final four, but Yul and Becky are too tight – to the extent that if the vote looks like it’s going Becky’s way, then he may give the immunity idol to her. But that would be a mistake. Jonathan would get voted out, leaving Yul, Ozzy and Becky. Ozzy the wins immunity, votes Yul out and gets the million.

If Yul hangs on to immunity, then Jonathan or Becky will be next to leave (subject to Ozzy winning individual immunity, otherwise he’s out). It will most probably be a Yul/Ozzy face off. Interesting episodes ahead.

Possible twist – Yul loses immunity somehow. Highly unlikely, but that could throw a real spanner in the works. The way to pull that off is for everyone (except Yul and one other person) to collude and (a) convince Yul that the other person is the target, and (b) all vote for Yul. The vote bounceback takes out either the other person, or the person that that other person votes for (which is what makes this scenario so unlikely). In any event, Yul loses the idol and the game is a bit more open.

  12:03am (GMT +10.00) tomorrow  •  General Media  •  Tweet This  •  Add a comment  • 

U2 at Telstra Stadium

Fantastic concert! Had to wait a year before they finally came, but I don’t think anyone was disappointed! Set list for the night.

Crowd shot

Another crowd shot

“Coexist”: I think this was put up around the time Sunday Bloody Sunday and Miss Sarajevo were played

Aussie flag sans Union Jack: U2 were probably playing to the right demographic for that political statement

Everyone waving their mobile phones in the air: doesn’t come out very well in the pic, but the effect was cool

I thought it was a better show at Madison Square Garden in New York, but that was probably because it wasn’t open air and was a more “intimate venue” where Bono could interact with the crowd a lot more (it ran longer, Bono chatted a bit more, guest appearance by Mary J Blige for One, a few audience members were dragged on stage to help sing, etc). But on the other hand, Telstra Stadium did have 75,000 people, and that creates quite an atmosphere.

  8:02pm (GMT +10.00)  •  Music  •  Tweet This  •  Comments (4)  • 

Mid-season predictions

There be spoilers ahead for the current season of The Amazing Race and Survivor. It’s pretty much the middle of the season, so time for some predictions.

Amazing Race 10
The destinations on this race have been great. The season started with the teams heading, for the first time ever, westwards around the world and have spent all of their time in Asia and Africa. The teams were also the most diverse they’ve ever been at the start of the race, but that diversity went out pretty quickly unfortunately. Here’s my thoughts on the remaining five teams.

I think Dustin and Kandace have been the strongest all-girl team to feature on the Race so far. I their personalities pretty darn annoying, but they’re definitely a very capable pair – this combined with luck and good looks do go a long way on the Race. Final three finish at the very least, unless something very unlucky happens to them. Prediction: 2nd.

Tyler and James are a sound team – two fit, capable, nice guys. They have a big problem with navigation and cars though which could be their undoing. Prediction: 3rd.

Rob and Kimberly have temper problems, but it never seems to wound either of them emotionally like it did Peter and Sarah. They’re competitive and might take it all the way. Of course, they have finished 3rd in the last four legs. Prediction: 1st.

Erwin and Godwin. What can I say? I truly admire their integrity (especially in helping Team Kentucky get the first fast foward on the Race) but I think they’ve ultimately too naive and lack the competitive spirit to see them through to the final three. They are also inordinately unlucky and at times somewhat bumbling. Maybe, freed from the constraints of the Sixpack Alliance, they might get the urge to actually treat the race like a race. I’d like to see them place well, but from what we’ve seen so far I don’t think they’ve got the minerals. Prediction: 4th.

Lyn and Karlyn. They’re a weak team and have only finished better than 5th place once. Next team to be eliminated.

I was sorry to see Team Kentucky go (David and Mary) this week. You’d mistake them for hicks at the start of the Race, but they really are very open-minded, good people who just haven’t had the opportunity to see the rest of the world.

Survivor Cook Islands
The merge is on everyone’s mind, and tribes have to time eliminations carefully now. Some point soon, they’re going to want to start voting out stronger players as opposed to weaker players. Yul is the obvious pick to go all the way. He’s got the immunity idol, has flown under the radar (never been talked negatively about, as a threat or otherwise, let alone had a vote against him), has a strong alliance with Becky who was targetted for elimination several episodes ago but has laid low since and is extremely intelligent. Ozzy’s strong and if he can make it through to the merge and get a few allies will be in with a good chance – but I think he’s too high profile and thus too visible as a threat. I find Nate likeable, but I wonder if he’ll rub people the wrong way later on? Parvati and Jenny are two girls that have flown under the radar quite well, they will do well I think. For some reason Jonathan evokes distrust – I can kind of see why, just the way he approaches and talks to people during scheming sessions, which is unfortunate. Candice is a wildcard at the moment – when push comes to shove and there’s a merge, I wonder if she’ll stick by the Yul-Becky-Jonathan alliance. Brad’s as good as gone next week, from what I can tell from the preview (although you never know!) With 12 people left, it’s still largely up for grabs.

  9:35pm (GMT +10.00)  •  General Media  •  Tweet This  •  Comments (1)  •