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Dec 09

Survivor: Samoa predictions

Finale is about to kick off for this evening, so here’s my thoughts on how it might go down tonight.

Brett came out of nowhere, and clearly he’s the biggest threat for the million. With the jury stacked with embittered Galu members, there’s going to be quite a bit of resentment there against Foa Foa. I don’t think Brett has put anyone on the jury offside, and he’s never had a vote cast against him. If he fails to win at the immunity challenges, he’s gone.

Foa Foa have had an amazing run, which goes to show how even if you suck at challenges, the social engineering side of the game is really the trump card.

They’ve all been under the control of Russell, who is one of my favourite all-time competitors (along with Yau Man and Yul). He’s the most impressive manipulator I’ve seen. The guy is cocky, but he’s not cocky to the point of being deluded – he knows when he’s in trouble. And you gotta hand it to him – three immunity idols with no clues. But even more impressive is he knew exactly how to use them. He played it when he should have. He displayed it when he should have. And the best part was in the last round where he was so confident he didn’t even bother playing it: “I’m keeping it as a souvenir, Jeff!”

I don’t know how he’d go down with the jury, but for sheer, “outwit, outplay, outlast” I think he deserves to win. So if I was Mick, Jaison or Natalie, I would be angling to blindside him if Brett wins immunity.

Jaison has been the biggest underperformer. I expected more from him physically and mentally. He’s pretty much been with Russell, which is fine, but it means he’ll get overshadowed by him when it comes down to the jury vote – unless Jaison gets Russell off first. If that’s his plan and he pulls it off, that’d be a masterstroke.

Mick is also nice, but he’s really part of the Russell coattails crew. He’s kind of in the same position as Jaison. Puppets – they’ve never really executing any gamechanging moves.

Natalie is nice… in all senses of the word. I’m not sure that she’s under Russell’s thumb as much as Russell thinks, especially as she has recently discovered that she and Brett are brothers and sisters in Christ.┬áBut the interesting thing is that Russell, Mick and Jaison are all pretty well off. Russell’s a millionaire. Mick is a specialist, who’s gotta be pulling in a healthy multi-six-figure income. Jaison is a law student at UChicago, and assuming he can find a job in this economy, will earn a healthy salary. I wonder if these things will play into the minds of the jury.

If I was Jaison, Mick or Natalie, I’d be seeking to ally with each other and try to kick off Russell and Brett. If either of those two make it through, it’s an uphill battle to get the most jury votes.

So, my predictions:

In a three-way with Russell, Brett, and one other, it’s a close call between Russell and Brett, but I think Russell can swing enough votes with that sweet talk of his. He’s a master manipulator, but he’s never really pissed anyone off except Laura and maybe Monica. He certainly hasn’t backstabbed any jury member in a way that would constitute betrayal (Shambo seems to be ok with what happened last week).

In a three-way between Natalie, Mick, and Jaison, it’s too close to call. I would be happy if any of them won.

In a three-way between Russell and two Foa Foa, I call Russell.

In a three-way between two Foa Foa (not Russell) and Brett, I call Brett.

I’m cheering for Russell.

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