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Nov 06

Survivor 13 – Another prediction

Spoilers ahead.

I thought last week’s episode of Survivor was a stunner. This week’s one was absolutely pivotal. Jonathan has pulled a Judas and successfully backstabbed everyone. He didn’t have a choice. Regardless of his so-called lack of integrity (the first mutiny was a stupid, rash impulsive decision), his latest flip was borne out of necessity. As the favoured-to-win Yul said, Jonathan’s nothing if not rational. It’s amazing how quickly the “White alliance” has crumbled in the course of one episode and now they find themselves staring down the barrel. Nate almost deserved to get voted out – he just didn’t put enough thought into things.

Here’s how it’s going to go down now, barring any twists that Jeff throws in. In the next three episodes, Candice, Parvati and Adam are out. It doesn’t matter what order, or if they win individual immunity, whatever. They’re gone. I can’t think of a reason why they’d not be picked off. Then it’s down to five. More interesting to watch over the next few episodes will be how the alliance of five manoeuvres. Ozzy’s the danger man – he’ll be winning a lot of individual immunities. So I forecast that Yul and Becky will have to rope someone in. There’s no way Jonathan will win – he’s too disliked and in the event of the final jury vote, he’ll go down in flames. Which makes him the perfect person to bring along to the end. Yul and Becky to rope in Jonathan against Sundra and Ozzy. Ozzy will surely pick up on this at some point, but I think the most he can do is keep winning immunity. If he fails to win immunity after Candice, Parvati or Adam are gone (or if Yul is thinking ahead, maybe after only two of those three are voted off – to surprise Ozzy – but this would require some major scheming), chances are Yul will move to have him voted off.

Let’s say we get down to Yul, Becky, Jonathan and Ozzy. Ozzy wins immunity. Things get interesting. Jonathan will be the best to take to the final four, but Yul and Becky are too tight – to the extent that if the vote looks like it’s going Becky’s way, then he may give the immunity idol to her. But that would be a mistake. Jonathan would get voted out, leaving Yul, Ozzy and Becky. Ozzy the wins immunity, votes Yul out and gets the million.

If Yul hangs on to immunity, then Jonathan or Becky will be next to leave (subject to Ozzy winning individual immunity, otherwise he’s out). It will most probably be a Yul/Ozzy face off. Interesting episodes ahead.

Possible twist – Yul loses immunity somehow. Highly unlikely, but that could throw a real spanner in the works. The way to pull that off is for everyone (except Yul and one other person) to collude and (a) convince Yul that the other person is the target, and (b) all vote for Yul. The vote bounceback takes out either the other person, or the person that that other person votes for (which is what makes this scenario so unlikely). In any event, Yul loses the idol and the game is a bit more open.